Discovery of RdRp Thumb-1 as a novel broad-spectrum antiviral family of targets and MDL-001 as a potent broad-spectrum inhibitor thereof - Part I: A Bioinformatics and Deep Learning Approach (preprint)

Positive sense, single-stranded RNA (+ssRNA) viruses consist of 12+ viral families that contain mild pathogens to pandemic-causing viruses like SARS-CoV-2, yet all share a vital and highly conserved RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). While RdRp is the target of several viral inhibitors, the active site has several pitfalls when translating in vitro inhibitors to the clinic. The highly polar residues within the active site often necessitate the use of highly polar or charged compounds, especially when designing nucleoside analog inhibitors, posing significant challenges in optimizing drug-likeness and membrane permeability for clinical efficacy. Here, we investigated the broad-spectrum potential of the allosteric Thumb-1 cryptic site of the RdRp, which to date has only been adequately studied in Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). To explore this potential antiviral target, we used a suite of bioinformatics techniques, including homology modeling and multiple sequence alignments, to reveal the conserved landscape of the Thumb-1 site across +ssRNA viruses. We then used ChemPrint, our Mol-GDL (Molecular-Geometric Deep Learning) machine learning model to predict drug inhibition of the Thumb-1 site in RdRp across +ssRNA viruses. Here, we identify MDL-001 as a promising broad-spectrum antiviral candidate with favorable properties that enable oral and once-a-day dosing. We also show how the cryptic nature of the Thumb-1 site masks itself to conventional virtual screening techniques, like docking, where activity prediction is heavily based on solving or predicting an accurate structure of the open pocket. This study demonstrates the utility of this approach in drug discovery for broad-spectrum antivirals that target the Thumb-1 site.

Impact of directly acting-antivirals and behavior change due to the COVID 19 pandemic on HCV micro-elimination in MSM in Germany (preprint)

Introduction Directly-acting antivirals (DAA) are the cornerstone to reach HCV elimination. In men who have sex with men (MSM) with HIV coinfection, recently acquired HCV infection (RAHCV) is common. Sexual practices and reinfection rates may hamper micro-elimination despite high treatment rates. Methods The cohort included MSM with RAHCV from 2014 to 2021. The patients’ demographic, clinical, behavioral, and laboratory data were documented, as well as treatment and reinfection outcomes.  Results 237 men with RAHCV were included, 216 (91%) were PLWH. Median age was 46 years (IQR: 39–52), median CD4 count was 660/mm3 (IQR: 527–835). The annual incidence of RAHCV remained between 0.28% and 0.43%, but dropped to 0.02% in 2021 during the onset of the COVID-pandemic almost reaching micro-elimination. The reinfection incidence was 15.5 per 100 patient-years (95%-CI: 12.6-18.8), reinfection was associated with use of crystal methamphetamine (p=0.032) and ketamine (p=0.042). 31.3% had multiple reinfections, four reinfections occurred in PrEP users. Conclusions High treatment and cure rates did not lead to HCV elimination. A change in sexual behavior, potentially imposed by COVID-19 restrictions, led to micro-elimination in the NoCo cohort. As RAHCV is prevalent in HIV-positive and -negative MSM, surveillance is necessary to consolidate elimination goals.

How reliable are estimates of key parameters in viral dynamic models? (preprint)

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed and fit to data to gain insight into disease pathogenesis for a number of agents including HIV, hepatitis C and B virus. However, for acute infections such as influenza and SARS-CoV-2, as well as for infections such as hepatitis C and B that can be acute or progress to being chronic, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the exponential phase of viral growth, i.e., when most transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimation of the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. Here, we evaluated the reliability of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing. We estimated the time from infection to peak viral load by fitting non-linear mixed models to a dataset with frequent viral RNA measurements, including pre-peak. We quantified the reliability of estimated infection times, key model parameters, and the time to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. We find a lack of data in the exponential growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days leading to a shorter predicted exponential growth phase. On the other hand, having an idea of the time of infection and fixing it, results in relatively good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data.

Personal historical perspective of HIV: part 11.

All animal life on earth is thought to have a common origin and have common genetic mechanisms. Evolution has enabled differentiation of species. Pathogens likewise have evolved within various species and mostly come to a settled dynamic equilibrium such that co-existence results (pathogens ideally should not kill their hosts). Problems arise when pathogens jump species because the new host had not developed any resistance. These infections from related species are known as zoonoses. COVID-19 is the latest example of a virus entering another species but HIV (and various strains of influenza) were previous examples. HIV entered the human population from monkeys in Africa. These two papers outline the underlying principle of HIV and the differing epidemiologies in Africa, the USA and in Edinburgh. The underlying immunosuppression of HIV in Africa was initially hidden behind common infections and HIV first came to world awareness in focal areas of the USA as a disease seemingly limited to gay males. The epidemic of intravenous drug abuse in Edinburgh was associated with overlapping epidemics of bloodborne viruses like hepatitis B, hepatitis C and HIV.

The antiviral potential of Phyllanthus species: a systematic review.

Viral infections and diseases caused by viruses are worldwide problems. According to a WHO report, three to five million people are chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) each year globally. Since some viruses mutate very quickly, developing antiviral drugs can be a daunting task. Moreover, currently used synthetic drugs are toxic and associated with side effects. Therefore, there is a need to search for alternative natural remedies that have low toxicity, a new mechanism of action, and no major side effects. Phyllanthus plants have traditionally been used to treat viral hepatitis and liver damage in many tropical and subtropical countries worldwide. In this review, we discuss the therapeutic potential of Phyllanthus spp. against HBV, HCV, HIV, herpes simplex virus, and SARS-CoV-2. The inferences from in vitro and in vivo studies and clinical trials validate the use of Phyllanthus in antiviral remedies.

A Cross-Sectional Survey on the Post-Pandemic Acceptability of Pharmacist-Delivered Telehealth Services Among HCV-HIV Patients.

The COVID-19 pandemic enhanced the use of telehealth as a means of delivering services to patients who required continued and uninterrupted care. This helped to reduce readmission to hospitals where COVID-19 hospitalization was prioritized. Patients with HCV and HIV and other chronic diseases require this type of care. This study evaluated the post-pandemic acceptability of pharmacist-delivered telehealth services among HCV and HIV monoinfected and coinfected patients in Washington DC. This was a cross-sectional study conducted in a community pharmacy setting in Washington DC whose primary outcome was the acceptability of pharmacist-delivered telehealth services through a proposed platform(docsink). A validated questionnaire, borrowed from the literature was used to determine telehealth acceptability, measured as behavioral intention, among patients who receive care from this pharmacy. The study recruited 100 participants. Descriptive statistics were conducted as well as bivariable and multivariable analyses to assess predictors of telehealth acceptability. In the unadjusted model, PU/EM (OR 0.571, 95% confidence interval (0.45-0.73), P < .0001)), PEOU(OR 0.72, 95% confidence interval (0.61-0.85)) and IM(OR 0.733, 95% confidence interval (0.62-0.87), P = .0003)) were significant predictors of behavioral intention. Overall, the study found that lower Perceived Usefulness/Extrinsic Motivation scores decrease the odds of intending to use pharmacist-delivered telehealth (OR = 0.490, 95% confidence interval (0.29-0.83), P = .008). This study determined that the impact of perceived usefulness and extrinsic motivation was critical to the acceptance of pharmacist-delivered telehealth among a predominantly Black/African American study population.

Global epidemiology of cirrhosis - aetiology, trends and predictions.

Cirrhosis is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in people with chronic liver disease worldwide. In 2019, cirrhosis was associated with 2.4% of global deaths. Owing to the rising prevalence of obesity and increased alcohol consumption on the one hand, and improvements in the management of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections on the other, the epidemiology and burden of cirrhosis are changing. In this Review, we highlight global trends in the epidemiology of cirrhosis, discuss the contributions of various aetiologies of liver disease, examine projections for the burden of cirrhosis, and suggest future directions to tackle this condition. Although viral hepatitis remains the leading cause of cirrhosis worldwide, the prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and alcohol-associated cirrhosis are rising in several regions of the world. The global number of deaths from cirrhosis increased between 2012 and 2017, but age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) declined. However, the ASDR for NAFLD-associated cirrhosis increased over this period, whereas ASDRs for other aetiologies of cirrhosis declined. The number of deaths from cirrhosis is projected to increase in the next decade. For these reasons, greater efforts are required to facilitate primary prevention, early detection and treatment of liver disease, and to improve access to care.

Cost-effectiveness and economic investment to eliminate chronic hepatitis C in Mexico.

In July 2020, the Mexican Government initiated the National Program for Elimination of Hepatitis C (HCV) under a procurement agreement, securing universal, free access to HCV screening, diagnosis and treatment for 2020-2022. This analysis quantifies the clinical and economic burden of HCV (MXN) under a continuation (or end) to the agreement. A modelling and Delphi approach was used to evaluate the disease burden (2020-2030) and economic impact (2020-2035) of the Historical Base compared to Elimination, assuming the agreement continues (Elimination-Agreement to 2035) or terminates (Elimination-Agreement to 2022). We estimated cumulative costs and the per-patient treatment expenditure needed to achieve net-zero cost (the difference in cumulative costs between the scenario and the base). Elimination is defined as a 90% reduction in new infections, 90% diagnosis coverage, 80% treatment coverage and 65% reduction in mortality by 2030. A viraemic prevalence of 0.55% (0.50-0.60) was estimated on 1st January 2021, corresponding to 745,000 (95% CI 677,000-812,000) viraemic infections in Mexico. The Elimination-Agreement to 2035 would achieve net-zero cost by 2023 and accrue 31.2 billion in cumulative costs. Cumulative costs under the Elimination-Agreement to 2022 are estimated at 74.2 billion. Under Elimination-Agreement to 2022, the per-patient treatment price must decrease to 11,000 to achieve net-zero cost by 2035. The Mexican Government could extend the agreement through 2035 or reduce the cost of HCV treatment to 11,000 to achieve HCV elimination at net-zero cost.

[Transmission risk classification for vaccine-preventable diseases in Minas Gerais, Brazil: two years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic]. / Classificação de risco para transmissão de doenças imunopreveníveis em Minas Gerais, Brasil: dois anos desde o início da pandemia de COVID-19.

The scope of this study is to analyze the risk classification of transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) in the 853 municipalities in the state of Minas Gerais (MG) two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is an epidemiological study with secondary data on vaccination coverage and dropout rate of ten immuno-biologicals recommended for under 2-year-old children in 2021 in MG. With respect to the dropout rate, this indicator was only evaluated for the multidose vaccines. After calculating all the indicators, the municipalities of the state were classified according to the transmission risk of VPDs into five categories: very low, low, medium, high, and very high risk. Minas Gerais had 80.9% of municipalities classified as high transmission risk for VPDs. Regarding the homogeneity of vaccination coverage (HCV), large municipalities had the highest percentage of HCV classified as very low, and 100% of these municipalities were classified as high or very high risk for transmission of VPDs, with statistical significance. The use of immunization indicators by municipality is effective for the classification of the scenario of each territory and the proposal of public policies seeking to increase vaccination coverage.

O objetivo é analisar a classificação de risco de transmissão de doenças imunopreveníveis nos 853 municípios de Minas Gerais (MG) após dois anos de início da pandemia de COVID-19. Estudo epidemiológico com dados secundários da cobertura vacinal e taxa de abandono de dez imunobiológicos recomendados para crianças menores de 2 anos, no ano de 2021, em MG. Em relação à taxa de abandono, este indicador foi avaliado somente para as vacinas multidoses. Após o cálculo de todos os indicadores, os municípios do estado foram classificados de acordo com o risco de transmissão de doenças imunopreveníveis em cinco estratos. Minas Gerais apresentou 80,9% dos municípios classificados como alto risco para transmissão de doenças imunopreveníveis. Em relação à homogeneidade das coberturas vacinais (HCV), os municípios de grande porte apresentaram a maior porcentagem de HCV classificada como muito baixa e 100% desses municípios foram classificados como de alto ou muito alto risco para transmissão de doenças imunopreveníveis, com significância estatística. A utilização de indicadores de imunização por município é efetiva para o delineamento do cenário de cada território e a proposição de políticas públicas em saúde visando o aumento das coberturas vacinais.

A people-centered decentralized outreach model toward HCV micro-elimination in hyperendemic areas: COMPACT study in SARS Co-V2 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Gaps in linkage-to-care remain the barriers toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in the directly-acting-antivirals (DAA) era, especially during SARS Co-V2 pandemics. We established an outreach project to target HCV micro-elimination in HCV-hyperendemic villages. METHODS: The COMPACT provided "door-by-door" screening by an "outreach HCV-checkpoint team" and an "outreach HCV-care team" for HCV diagnosis, assessment and DAA therapy in Chidong/Chikan villages between 2019 and 2021. Participants from neighboring villages served as Control group. RESULTS: A total of 5731 adult residents participated in the project. Anti-HCV prevalence rate was 24.0% (886/3684) in Target Group and 9.5% (194/2047) in Control group (P < 0.001). The HCV-viremic rates among anti-HCV-positive subjects were 42.7% and 41.2%, respectively, in Target and Control groups. After COMPACT engagement, 80.4% (304/378) HCV-viremic subjects in the Target group were successfully linked-to-care, and Control group (70% (56/80), P = 0.039). The rates of link-to-treatment and SVR12 were comparable between Target (100% and 97.4%, respectively) and Control (100% and 96.4%) groups. The community effectiveness was 76.4% in the COMPACT campaign, significantly higher in Target group than in Control group (78.3% versus 67.5%, P = 0.039). The community effectiveness decreased significantly during SARS Co-V2 pandemic in Control group (from 81% to 31.8%, P < 0.001), but not in Target group (80.3% vs. 71.6%, P = 0.104). CONCLUSIONS: The outreach door-by-door screen strategy with decentralized onsite treatment programs greatly improved HCV care cascade in HCV-hyperendemic areas, a model for HCV elimination in high-risk marginalized communities in SARS Co-V2 pandemic.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on diagnosis and treatment access of patients with viral hepatitis in Turkey.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to evaluate access to diagnosis, treatment and follow-up in patients with viral hepatitis during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODOLOGY: Patients who started treatment for hepatitis B and hepatitis C were included in the study and analyzed in two periods: before-pandemic and during-pandemic. Indication for treatment and frequency of laboratory follow-up was obtained from hospital records. A telephone survey was administered to evaluate treatment access and compliance. RESULTS: Four centers with 258 patients were included in the study. Of these 161 (62.4%) were male, median age was 50 years. The number of patients, admitted to outpatient clinics was 134647 in the before-pandemic period and 106548 in the during-pandemic period. Number of patients who started treatment for hepatitis B were significantly high during-pandemic period compared with before-pandemic (78 (0.07%); 73 (0.05%) respectively; p = 0.04). The number who received treatment for hepatitis C was similar in both periods: 43 (0.04%); 64 (0.05%), respectively (p = 0.25). Prophylactic treatment for hepatitis B, due to immunosuppressive agents was significantly higher in during-pandemic period (p = 0.001). In the laboratory follow-ups at 4th, 12th and 24th weeks of treatment, worse adherence was detected in during-pandemic (for all p < 0.05). Access to treatment and compliance of all patients was over 90% and did not differ in the two periods. CONCLUSIONS: During-pandemic, hepatitis patients' access to diagnosis, treatment initiation and follow-up had worsened in Turkey. The health policy implemented during the pandemic had a positive impact on patients' access to and compliance to treatment.

Deciphering the Relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and Cancer.

Some viruses are known to be associated with the onset of specific cancers. These microorganisms, oncogenic viruses or oncoviruses, can convert normal cells into cancer cells by modulating the central metabolic pathways or hampering genomic integrity mechanisms, consequently inhibiting the apoptotic machinery and/or enhancing cell proliferation. Seven oncogenic viruses are known to promote tumorigenesis in humans: human papillomavirus (HPV), hepatitis B and C viruses (HBV, HCV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human T-cell leukemia virus 1 (HTLV-1), Kaposi sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV), and Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCPyV). Recent research indicates that SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 progression may predispose recovered patients to cancer onset and accelerate cancer development. This hypothesis is based on the growing evidence regarding the ability of SARS-CoV-2 to modulate oncogenic pathways, promoting chronic low-grade inflammation and causing tissue damage. Herein, we summarize the main relationships known to date between virus infection and cancer, providing a summary of the proposed biochemical mechanisms behind the cellular transformation. Mechanistically, DNA viruses (such as HPV, HBV, EBV, and MCPyV) encode their virus oncogenes. In contrast, RNA viruses (like HCV, HTLV-1) may encode oncogenes or trigger host oncogenes through cis-/-trans activation leading to different types of cancer. As for SARS-CoV-2, its role as an oncogenic virus seems to occur through the inhibition of oncosuppressors or controlling the metabolic and autophagy pathways in the infected cells. However, these effects could be significant in particular scenarios like those linked to severe COVID-19 or long COVID. On the other hand, looking at the SARS-CoV-2─cancer relationship from an opposite perspective, oncolytic effects and anti-tumor immune response were triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection in some cases. In summary, our work aims to recall comprehensive attention from the scientific community to elucidate the effects of SARS-CoV-2 and, more in general, ß-coronavirus infection on cancer susceptibility for cancer prevention or supporting therapeutic approaches.

High risk injection drug use and uptake of HIV prevention and treatment services among people who inject drugs in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

We conducted a mixed-methods study to understand current drug use practices and access to healthcare services for people who use injection drugs in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We used respondent-driven sampling to recruit 45 people who used injection drugs within the past 6 months from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We found high rates of practices that increase HIV/viral hepatitis risk including the use of shared needles (43%) and direct blood injections (bluetoothing) (18%). Despite 35% living with HIV, only 40% accessed antiretroviral therapy within the past year, and one accessed PrEP. None of the participants ever tested for Hepatitis C.

TASL, TADE, and DAROC consensus for the screening and management of hepatitis C in patients with diabetes.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are prevalent diseases globally and emerging evidence demonstrates the bidirectional association between the two diseases. Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for HCV have a high treatment success rate and can significantly reduce the risks of short and long-term complications of HCV infection. However, despite the evidence of the association between diabetes and HCV and the benefits of anti-HCV treatment, previously published guidelines did not focus on the universal HCV screening for patients with diabetes and their subsequent management once confirmed as having HCV viremia. Nonetheless, screening for HCV among patients with diabetes will contribute to the eradication of HCV infection. Thus, the three major Taiwan medical associations of diabetes and liver diseases endorsed a total of 14 experts in the fields of gastroenterology, hepatology, diabetology, and epidemiology to convene and formulate a consensus statement on HCV screening and management among patients with diabetes. Based on recent studies and guidelines as well as from real-world clinical experiences, the Taiwan experts reached a consensus that provides a straightforward approach to HCV screening, treatment, and monitoring of patients with diabetes.

The Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on Cases of and Deaths From AIDS, Gonorrhea, Syphilis, Hepatitis B, and Hepatitis C: Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: China implemented a nationwide lockdown to contain COVID-19 from an early stage. Previous studies of the impact of COVID-19 on sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and diseases caused by blood-borne viruses (BBVs) in China have yielded widely disparate results, and studies on deaths attributable to STDs and BBVs are scarce. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to elucidate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on cases, deaths, and case-fatality ratios of STDs and BBVs. METHODS: We extracted monthly data on cases and deaths for AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C between January 2015 and December 2021 from the notifiable disease reporting database on the official website of the National Health Commission of China. We used descriptive statistics to summarize the number of cases and deaths and calculated incidence and case-fatality ratios before and after the implementation of a nationwide lockdown (in January 2020). We used negative binominal segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impacts of lockdown on cases, deaths, and case-fatality ratios in January 2020 and December 2021, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 14,800,330 cases of and 127,030 deaths from AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C were reported from January 2015 to December 2021, with an incidence of 149.11/100,000 before lockdown and 151.41/100,000 after lockdown and a case-fatality ratio of 8.21/1000 before lockdown and 9.50/1000 after lockdown. The negative binominal model showed significant decreases in January 2020 in AIDS cases (-23.4%; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.766, 95% CI 0.626-0.939) and deaths (-23.9%; IRR 0.761, 95% CI 0.647-0.896), gonorrhea cases (-34.3%; IRR 0.657, 95% CI 0.524-0.823), syphilis cases (-15.4%; IRR 0.846, 95% CI 0.763-0.937), hepatitis B cases (-17.5%; IRR 0.825, 95% CI 0.726-0.937), and hepatitis C cases (-19.6%; IRR 0.804, 95% CI 0.693-0.933). Gonorrhea, syphilis, and hepatitis C showed small increases in the number of deaths and case-fatality ratios in January 2020. By December 2021, the cases, deaths, and case-fatality ratios for each disease had either reached or remained below expected levels. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 lockdown may have contributed to fewer reported cases of AIDS, gonorrhea, syphilis, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C and more reported deaths and case-fatality ratios of gonorrhea, syphilis, and hepatitis C in China.

OPTN/SRTR 2021 Annual Data Report: Kidney.

The year 2021 marked both successes and challenges for the field of kidney transplantation, in the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and broader geographic organ distribution. The total number of kidney transplants in the United States reached a record count of 25,487, driven by growth in deceased donor kidney transplants. The total number of candidates listed for deceased donor kidney transplant rose slightly in 2021 but remained below 2019 listing levels, with nearly 10% of candidates having been waiting 5 years or longer. Pretransplant mortality declined slightly among candidates of Black, Hispanic, and other races, in parallel with increasing numbers of Black and Hispanic transplant recipients. In the context of broader organ sharing, there is growing disparity in pretransplant mortality among non-metropolitan compared with metropolitan residents. The proportion of deceased donor kidneys recovered but not used for transplant (nonuse rate) rose to a high of 24.6% overall, with greater nonuse among biopsied kidneys (35.9%), kidneys from donors aged 55 years or older (51.1%), and kidneys with kidney donor profile index (KDPI) of 85% or greater (66.6%). Nonuse of kidneys from donors who are hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody positive only slightly exceeded that of HCV antibody-negative donors. Disparities in access to living donor kidney transplant persists, especially for non-White and publicly insured patients. Delayed graft function continues an upward trend and occurred in 24% of adult kidney transplants in 2021. Five-year graft survival after living compared with deceased donor transplant was 88.6% versus 80.7% for recipients aged 18-34 years, and 82.1% versus 68.0% for recipients aged 65 years or older. The total number of pediatric kidney transplants performed increased to 820 in 2021, the highest number since 2010. Despite numerous efforts, living donor kidney transplant remains low among pediatric recipients, with continued racial disparities. The rate of deceased donor transplants among pediatric candidates recovered in 2021 from a low in 2020. Congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract remain the leading primary kidney disease diagnosis among pediatric candidates. Most pediatric deceased donor recipients receive a kidney from a donor with KDPI less than 35%. Graft survival continues to improve, with superior outcomes for living donor transplant recipients.

Trends in aetiology-based hospitalisation for cirrhosis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with pre-existing cirrhosis and exposure to coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) may portend a poor prognosis. We evaluated the temporal trends in aetiology-based hospitalisations and potential predictors of in-hospital mortality in hospitalisation with cirrhosis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Based on the US National Inpatient Sample 2019-2020, we determined quarterly trends in aetiology-based hospitalisations with cirrhosis and decompensated cirrhosis and identified predictors of in-hospital mortality in hospitalisation with cirrhosis. RESULTS: We analysed 316,418 hospitalisations, representing 1,582,090 hospitalisations with cirrhosis. Hospitalisations for cirrhosis increased at a relatively higher rate during the COVID-19 era. Hospitalisation rates for alcohol-related liver disease (ALD)-related cirrhosis increased significantly (quarterly percentage change [QPC]: 3.6%, 95% CI: 2.2%-5.1%), with a notably higher rate during the COVID-19 era. In contrast, hospitalisation rates for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis decreased steadily with a trend of -1.4% of QPC (95% CI: -2.5% to -0.1%). Quarterly trends in the proportion of ALD- (QPC: 1.7%, 95% CI: 0.9%-2.6%) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease-related (QPC: 0.7%, 95% CI: 0.1%-1.2%) hospitalisations with cirrhosis increased significantly but declined steadily for viral hepatitis. The COVID-19 era and COVID-19 infection were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality during hospitalisation with cirrhosis and decompensated cirrhosis. Compared with HCV-related cirrhosis, ALD-related cirrhosis was associated with a 40% higher risk of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: In-hospital mortality in cirrhosis was higher in the COVID-19 era than in the pre-COVID-19 era. ALD is the leading aetiology-specific cause of in-hospital mortality in cirrhosis with an independent detrimental impact of the COVID-19 infection.

Evaluation of Simplified HCV Diagnostics in HIV/HCV Co-Infected Patients in Myanmar.

To evaluate a decentralised testing model and simplified treatment protocol of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection to facilitate treatment scale-up in Myanmar, this prospective, observational study recruited HIV-HCV co-infected outpatients receiving sofosbuvir/daclatasvir in Yangon, Myanmar. The study examined the outcomes and factors associated with a sustained virological response (SVR). A decentralised "hub-and-spoke" testing model was evaluated where fingerstick capillary specimens were transported by taxi and processed centrally. The performance of the Xpert HCV VL Fingerstick Assay in detecting HCV RNA was compared to the local standard of care ( plasma HCV RNA collected by venepuncture). Between January 2019 and February 2020, 162 HCV RNA-positive individuals were identified; 154/162 (95%) initiated treatment, and 128/154 (84%) returned for their SVR12 visit. A SVR was achieved in 119/154 (77%) participants in the intent-to-treat population and 119/128 (93%) participants in the modified-intent-to-treat population. Individuals receiving an antiretroviral therapy were more likely to achieve a SVR (with an odds ratio (OR) of 7.16, 95% CI 1.03-49.50), while those with cirrhosis were less likely (OR: 0.26, 95% CI 0.07-0.88). The sensitivity of the Xpert HCV VL Fingerstick Assay was 99.4% (95% CI 96.7-100.0), and the specificity was 99.2% (95% CI 95.9-99.9). A simplified treatment protocol using a hub-and-spoke testing model of fingerstick capillary specimens can achieve an SVR rate in LMIC comparable to well-resourced high-income settings.

Public health interventions, priority populations, and the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on hepatitis C elimination among people who have injected drugs in Montreal (Canada): A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: In Montreal (Canada), high hepatitis C virus (HCV) seroincidence (21 per 100 person-years in 2017) persists among people who have injected drugs (PWID) despite relatively high testing rates and coverage of needle and syringe programs (NSP) and opioid agonist therapy (OAT). We assessed the potential of interventions to achieve HCV elimination (80% incidence reduction and 65% reduction in HCV-related mortality between 2015 and 2030) in the context of COVID-19 disruptions among all PWID and PWID living with HIV. METHODS: Using a dynamic model of HCV-HIV co-transmission, we simulated increases in NSP (from 82% to 95%) and OAT (from 33% to 40%) coverage, HCV testing (every 6 months), or treatment rate (100 per 100 person-years) starting in 2022 among all PWID and PWID living with HIV. We also modeled treatment scale-up among active PWID only (i.e., people who report injecting in the past six months). We reduced intervention levels in 2020-2021 due to COVID-19-related disruptions. Outcomes included HCV incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and proportions of averted chronic HCV infections and deaths. RESULTS: COVID-19-related disruptions could have caused temporary rebounds in HCV transmission. Further increasing NSP/OAT or HCV testing had little impact on incidence. Scaling-up treatment among all PWID achieved incidence and mortality targets among all PWID and PWID living with HIV. Focusing treatment on active PWID could achieve elimination, yet fewer projected deaths were averted (36% versus 48%). CONCLUSIONS: HCV treatment scale-up among all PWID will be required to eliminate HCV in high-incidence and prevalence settings. Achieving elimination by 2030 will entail concerted efforts to restore and enhance pre-pandemic levels of HCV prevention and care.